Published: Tue, April 17, 2018
Business | By Kate Woods

Democrats' midterm advantage narrows in new poll

Democrats' midterm advantage narrows in new poll

Fifty-four percent of registered voters in New Jersey say they would vote or lean toward voting for the Democratic candidate in their district compared with 35 percent who would support the Republican candidate if the election was held now. Democrats easily won all three statewide offices previous year and made major gains in the state House.

Making matters worse for Republicans, the poll found that the overall shift is mostly coming from GOP-controlled districts. Democrats from New Jersey now have seven representatives in the House.

However, in the past two elections, these districts averaged a 22-point advantage for Republicans.

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The poll's vote share in the seven seats now held by Democrats - a 31 percentage point gap - is in line with the average 30-point advantage Democrats held in these districts in both 2016 and 2014. "Not merely will be new-jersey Democrats doing greater on the generic household ballot state wide, but also the change is coming nearly entirely out of districts now owned by the GOP".

If the result holds in November, it could spell trouble for the five Republican representatives in the state. Just 34 percent approve of the job Trump is doing, while 61 percent disapprove. Almost half of New Jersey residents believe their taxes will go up because of the law, and only 19 percent think they will go down.

4 of those five GOP-held chairs are CNN critical Races, together with just one listed within the leaning Democratic category, two because toss-ups and you as very likely Republican.

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In GOP-held House districts, 42 percent of residents approve of the tax plan and 46 percent disapprove, according to the poll.

Many New Jerseyans aren't fans of the new federal tax law, either.

"Most New Jerseyans feel like they've ended up with the short end of the stick from these tax reforms".

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An NBC News-Wall Street Journal poll conducted from April 8-11 - the same time frame as the Post-ABC poll - found a 7-point advantage in the generic congressional ballot for Democrats, down from a 10-point edge in March. It had a margin of error plus or minus 3.7 percentage points for your complete sample and 3.9 percentage points for registered voters.

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