Published: Mon, April 16, 2018
Sports | By Brooke Harris

After Skymet, IMD also forecasts normal Monsoon 2018 at 97 percent

After Skymet, IMD also forecasts normal Monsoon 2018 at 97 percent

The department predicted 97% rainfall of long period average.

Rainfall will be 97% of the 50-year average with a 56% probability that rains will be normal to excess, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said in its first stage long range forecast.

Forecast suggests maximum probability for normal rainfall and a low probability for deficient rainfall during the season. The country had recorded a rainfall of 97 per cent in 2016 and 98 per cent past year during the season, which runs from June to September.

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The IMD, though, will be predicting the onset of monsoon in middle of this May. Since 2012, IMD is also using the dynamical global climate forecasting system (CFS) model developed under the Monsoon Mission to generate forecasts. India had 95 per cent of the LPA rainfall a year ago - as against the first forecast of 96 per cent of the LPA (with an error margin of +/- 5 per cent). The region-based forecast will also be available only in June when the second assessment is done, Ramesh said.

According to the weatherman, below 90 per cent rainfall is considered deficient and at 95 per cent it is considered below normal.

For generating the forecast for the 2018 southwest Monsoon season rainfall, atmospheric and Oceanic initial conditions of April 2018 were used.

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On April 4, private weather forecast agency Skymet Weather had released similar forecast that the four-month long Southwest Monsoon which gives about 70 percent of India's annual rainfall, would be normal.

If the forecast holds true, 2018 will be third successive year of normal rains. El Niño is an abnormal condition over Equatorial Pacific Ocean, with warming over central and east Pacific Ocean.

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